The area of commercial housing for sale nationwide has decreased for 6 consecutive months: inventory digestion cycle is 10.6 months
Recently, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the area of commercial housing for sale nationwide has shown a downward trend for six consecutive months, and the inventory digestion cycle has been shortened to 10.6 months. This phenomenon reflects the new changes in the real estate market under policy regulation and market supply and demand relationship adjustment. This article will combine structured data to analyze the current status and future trends of the current real estate market.
1. The area for sale of commercial housing continues to decrease
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, as of October 2023, the national commercial housing area for sale was 650 million square meters, a decrease of 300 million square meters from the previous month and a decrease of 4.4% month-on-month. This is the sixth consecutive month of decline since May 2023, showing an accelerated inventory disposal.
| time | Area for sale (100 million square meters) | Changes month-on-month |
|---|---|---|
| May 2023 | 7.2 | -0.2% |
| June 2023 | 7.0 | -2.8% |
| July 2023 | 6.8 | -2.9% |
| August 2023 | 6.7 | -1.5% |
| September 2023 | 6.8 | +1.5% |
| October 2023 | 6.5 | -4.4% |
2. The inventory digestion cycle is shortened to 10.6 months
The inventory digestion cycle is an important indicator to measure the balance of supply and demand in the real estate market. According to estimates, the current national commercial housing inventory digestion cycle is 10.6 months, further shortening from the 11.2 months last month. This data shows that the market supply and demand relationship is gradually improving.
| time | Inventory digestion cycle (month) | change |
|---|---|---|
| May 2023 | 12.5 | -0.3 |
| June 2023 | 12.0 | -0.5 |
| July 2023 | 11.8 | -0.2 |
| August 2023 | 11.5 | -0.3 |
| September 2023 | 11.2 | -0.3 |
| October 2023 | 10.6 | -0.6 |
3. The effect of policy regulation is revealed
Since the beginning of this year, many places have introduced a series of real estate support policies, including reducing the down payment ratio, relaxing purchase and loan restrictions, and providing housing purchase subsidies. These policies have effectively stimulated market demand and accelerated inventory sales. In addition, some real estate companies have also promoted the digestion of inventory through price reduction and promotion, accelerated completion and delivery.
4. Regional differentiation is obvious
From a regional perspective, the inventory digestion cycle in first- and second-tier cities is generally short, and some hot cities are even less than 6 months; while the inventory pressure in third- and fourth-tier cities is still relatively large, and the digestion cycle generally exceeds 15 months. This differentiation reflects the differences in population mobility, economic vitality, etc. in cities at different levels.
| City Type | Inventory digestion cycle (month) |
|---|---|
| First-tier cities | 8.2 |
| Second-tier cities | 9.5 |
| Third- and fourth-tier cities | 15.8 |
5. Future trend prospects
With the continuous release of policy effects and market self-regulation, it is expected that the area of commercial housing for sale will continue to remain in a downward trend in the next few months. However, it should be noted that the real estate market is still facing challenges such as economic downward pressure and unstable expectations of residents' income, and the pace of inventory sales may slow down. In addition, the problem of tight capital chains of real estate companies has not been completely solved, and some projects may face delivery pressure.
Overall, the current national commercial housing inventory reduction has made positive progress, but the issue of regional differentiation still needs attention. In the future, policies should be implemented more accurately, support reasonable housing needs, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
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